Coronavirus

[oldbeezer]

I am attaching a link to a site called fivethirtyeight. They analyze politics/news/sports in a highly statistical manner. I have no doubt at least one person here will find that interesting. The founder Nate Silver used to make his living by betting on sports based on statistical analysis. It is mainly focused on US politics & sports but also covers some football (soccer) and has been covering the virus. The page the link goes to is not particularly germane Dr Annie but is interesting none the less and perhaps in the future will address death certificates.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...curve-but-hospitalizations-havent-peaked-yet/

 

[NPeteN]

Perhaps she is trying to skew the data to support her agenda. Among other things she opposes vaccinations. Trying gogling her.

The woman is a known right-wing tool.

Anti-gov conspiracy theorist nutjobs love to spread this bullshit on the internet. Don't give her a second thought, not worth your time.

 

[Fast Eddie]

I dont agree with you, Nigel.

If someone is of compromised health, with pre existing condition that makes them vulnerable to infection, and then they die earlier because of the infection, the infection still led to their death.

If they had not gotten the infection they would still be alive. If they didn't have the preexisting condition, the infection still may be killed them.

If I have stage four cancer and a doctor gives me a week to live, and I die after a moderate auto accident, and the passenger next to me survives, what is the cause of death?

Someone in your first and second sentence would be the #1 category on my list, ie they would be counted. So we don’t disagree there.

Your last sentence we’ll have to agree to disagree on. A car crash is a random unrelated event. A virus pandemic is different. My main point is that we need to understand how many deaths the virus causes. To do that I believe we need to understand the extra deaths caused by the virus. Like I said, we have an average of 1600 deaths per day in the U.K. If the average during the pandemic is still 1600, how bad is the pandemic ?! (I don’t think that’s the case BTW, just trying to illustrate the importance of measuring the extra deaths).

 

[xbacksideslider]

The rules were changed; the changes increase the CoVID-19 count; the official document is right there; she talks about it; that’s the point.

 

[xbacksideslider]

2018 US deaths by flu - 80,000 according to CDC


As of 4/11/2020, CDC puts US COVID-19 death at about 21,000

 

[oldbeezer]

This is an article from PBS. It will help explain the difference between carona virus and the seasonal flu.
Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.
Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.
Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be.
H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.
Fast forward....
Now, here comes this Coronavirus...it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human.
Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”.
This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.
And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way that it causes great damage to human lungs.
That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.
We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

 

[Tornado]

Perhaps she is trying to skew the data to support her agenda. Among other things she opposes vaccinations. Trying gogling her.

Im not the least surprised to hear that! She came across nearly immediately to me as someone who distrusts the 'system', any government or authority. Ill wager she is also a young Earth creationist and maybe even a flat Earther. One of the first things out her mouth was to praise some pastor who dared to speak truth when it was dangerous/illegal to do so.

My BS call was not just about her, it was with XBS's comment that CDC, NIH, WHO stand to gain by trumping up case numbers. If that is true, same must be said by all countried around globe dealing with this. Why would authoritarian regimes be doing the opposite, withholding real numbers or ignoring the issue completely?

Its this boiler plate refusal of reality in many groups in the USA and elsewhere that leads to major decision making mistakes.

 

[JimC]

The numbers of recorded covid deaths do increase in weeks 11,12,13, that is true. But it is not a trend, or even a meaningful pattern yet, until we can demonstrate that those deaths are actually extra deaths.

This will take some time, but now we know where to look, we can actually look for this rather than relying on media headlines.

My own personal hypothesis at this stage is that the number will show ‘extra’ covid deaths, but that they will less than the ‘1000 per day’ headlines.

BUT...

Even if you do think the lady in the video is a nut job (which she may well be for all I know), you surely cannot discount every quote and example she gave? She clearly demonstrated that there is an underlying skew in the way deaths will be ‘assumed’ to be covid caused.

Also, the NVSS document above shows the same.

And even our U.K. ONS statics do as well, it uses the phrase “Deaths involving COVID-19”... NOT deaths caused by COVID-19.

I’m not a Doctor, so I may be looking at this wrong, but to my mind ‘deaths involving’ can mean:

1. People who would not have died otherwise and were killed by covid-19
2. People who would have died imminently anyway, irrespective of covid
3. People who would have died soon anyway, and death was earlier because of covid
4. People who died whilst having covid even though it was not the cause of death
5. People who die with the ‘check list’ of covid symptoms but actually didn’t have it at all.

There may be other categories to my 5 above. But the only one that really matters is number 1. Everything else is ‘noise’.

Where are you trying to go with this, Nigel? All you are doing is running down a bunch of rabbit holes. CORONAVIRUS IS REAL! End of story!

You have one like from an Alex Jones devotee. The rest of this thread disagrees with your proposition.

 

[Fast Eddie]

Where are you trying to go with this, Nigel? All you are doing is running down a bunch of rabbit holes. CORONAVIRUS IS REAL! End of story!

You have one like from an Alex Jones devotee. The rest of this thread disagrees with your proposition.

Really Jim?

And what exactly is my proposition that you disagree with?

 

[oldbeezer]

2018 US deaths by flu - 80,000 according to CDC

It would be a lot worse if no one got vaccinated which Dr Annie supports.

 

[JimC]

Really Jim?

And what exactly is my proposition that you disagree with?

In general, your posts seem to dispute the CORONAVIRUS data, or at least cast doubt on it. Are there some statistical errors in the reports? Probably. Most are not significant, no doubt. Rather than over reported deaths, it is very plausible the deaths from CORONAVIRUS are under reported.

I’m not about to argue with you, only disagree.

 

[oldmikew]

There was a pandemic in the Uk in 1957 ... resulted in 14,000 UK deaths and drove the economy into shut down .Sickpay alone amounted to £10,000,000 which in 2020 currency is a huge amount of money.

The Brits had just lost the empire , suez and Idare say the ashes , but astonishingly 2 years later Macmillan won the 1959 election with the slogan ' you have never had it so good'

Now,in contrast ,people are terrified. Panic buying etc ,

 

[xbacksideslider]

Previuously, we saw that the rules for MDs in filling our Death Certificates were changed.

CDC still counts the typical decedent with the Seasonal Flu as a death by Pneumonia.

But

CDC changed Death Certificate rules for COVID-19.

Now CDC counts a decedent with COVID-19 as death by COVID-19, despite the immediate cause of death being Pneumonia.

From CDC site:


Quote from that link:

“ . . . because seasonal flu can aggravate an existing chronic illness (such as congestive heart failure or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease). Therefore, seasonal flu is infrequently listed on death certificates of people who die from flu-related complications.”

So, beyond any slur, that’s the fact. There is a double standard that overstates the number of deaths by COViD-19 as compared the the Sseasonal Flu.

I am not diminishing the threat; rather I am calling out the institutional interests of government agencies.

 

[NPeteN]

In general, your posts seem to dispute the CORONAVIRUS data, or at least cast doubt on it. Are there some statistical errors in the reports? Probably. Most are not significant, no doubt. Rather than over reported deaths, it is very plausible the deaths from CORONAVIRUS are under reported.

I’m not about to argue with you, only disagree.

I think Nigel is just trying to work through some info he has come across that doesn't seem to match with what he sees reported on the news. Nothing wrong with that.

Injecting idiot conspiracy theorist quick doctors into the mix does everyone a disservice.

 

[Fast Eddie]

I think Nigel is just trying to work through some info he has come across that doesn't seem to match with what he sees reported on the news. Nothing wrong with that.

Injecting idiot conspiracy theorist quick doctors into the mix does everyone a disservice.

Indeed Pete, that’s all I’m doing...

My point is that they are being very BADLY reported. We are being fed really, really poor data.

As I’ve said repeatedly, I’m not denying covid. Not saying people aren’t dying. So please folks, don’t look for some big meaning or conspiracy in my posts that isn’t there, you’ll be disappointed if you do!

And btw I most certainly am not supporting any anti vaxxer agenda. It’s not so long ago that we came across this topic when getting our kids vaccinated. Suffice to say, they were fully inoculated as per Public Health England guidelines!

But y’all can relax, I’ve not got anything to say for a while now until the U.K. ONS updates their data.

 

[oldbeezer]

Ok I see what you are saying, a person dies of pneumonia as a result of haveing covid-19. Is it not highly unlikely the person would have got pneumonia if he didn't have covid-19. And rather than in

the institutional interests of government agencies

it might be in the interest of the population in general to know the where, the how many etc of the effect of the virus.

 

[xbacksideslider]

Deal with the CDC’s own contradiction;, above; it’s own document.

The CDC has a double standard when it comes to cause of death. That skews the comparative numbers

As for that Montana doctor, she’s talking facts about that skew.

None of her critics on here - over the last couple of pages - said anything of substance to rebut her.

Just “kill the messenger” and
warnings to the rest of the tribe, “stay away, dont read it! “

Slurs are not arguments.

 

[xbacksideslider]

Of course we all want to know about it!

Yes, “ it might be in the interest of the population in general to know the where, the how many etc of the effect of the virus”

Do you want crony information? Corrupted information?

Are bureaucrats angels?
Not devils either; just like rest of us.

They have no career or institutional “team” interests? Of course they do, just like me and you.

No cause to skew the message? Of course they do.

Have some skepticism. Read critically.
It’s like signing a contract. Serious business.

 

[oldbeezer]

Do you want crony information? Corrupted information?

As you said how the deaths are to be documented is right there in the CDC instructions. Therefor we all know how the numbers came about, doesn't sound corrupt or crony to me. More like everybody talking from the same page.
I do agree we all have our own biases.

 

[xbacksideslider]

Maybe you miss the point?

CDC counts pneumonia deaths associated with Flu as pneumonia.

CDC counts pneumonia deaths associated with COVID-19 as COVID -19.

That exaggerates COVID compared to FLU and a NEW rule does that.

Why?

There has to be an explanation.

Did the Flu just go away?

Are NoNE of thes CIVI-19 deaths actually Flu?

How many deaths from flu this year?